The Dutch electric vehicle (BEV) market continued its recovery in April, starting in the first quarter, after the poor performance of 2021. Sales nearly doubled compared to the same month last year to 4,717 sales of electric vehicles. Market share increased from 10% to 21.4%. While BEV sales were booming, exhaust vehicle sales were down 19%.
The actual growth of the Dutch electric fleet is even greater. Although there is an incentive for private buyers of used electric cars this year, there is hardly any offer in this market segment. Another 1,500 used BEVs have been added to the fleet from abroad.
In Europe, and especially in the European Union, used cars are easily shipped to the places where they are most in demand. Think of it like the US auto market and the different demand in each state. All reports on market development in European countries can be compared to electric vehicle sales stories in California, Wisconsin, Florida (or any other state that interests you).
It is important to mention an additional 1,500 BEV on the road each month. For charging stations to be profitable, the minimum number of passing vehicles must be equipped with a plug. Dutch experience shows that about 3% to 4% of the fleet is electrified to make DC charging profitable. However, your mileage may vary in different countries.
The April numbers pushed BEV’s share of the fleet to just over 3%. Charging providers know this and are trying to open more charging stations. Shipping will become the shipping paradise of the world even better.
Another interesting development in this auto market is that April sales (for the total auto market) are lower than the same month last year for the fourth year in a row. It’s tempting to attribute that to the Osborne effect, but there are so many other disruptions in the market that it would be a mistake to pinpoint a single cause. In addition to the Osborne effect, chip shortages, supply disruptions, EU regulations, factory closures, inflation, recession fears and allocation priorities have a negative impact on the market.
The Dutch market is notorious for a rush of year-end deliveries due to changes in the incentive system. This year and the next two will have the same incentives. Thus, no rise is expected at the end of the year, but rather flat development as with fossil compounds. We expect only slight seasonal effects. Without the year-end peak, sales numbers will suffer compared to the previous year, but this will likely be offset by significantly better sales in the first quarter of the following year.
This year, the Electric Electric Vehicle (BEV) market got off to a slow start due to the surge in supply last year. In the coming years, it will look like the distribution of fossil fuel vehicles (FFV). This represents about 55% of sales in the first half of the year, and 45% in the second half.
Another market disruption unrelated to strong or weak demand for all-electric vehicles is the EU’s Average Business Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulation, which limits how much carbon dioxide a company can emit. The scale is the average of all cars sold in grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer driven.
Most OEMs will be safe with the CAFE regulation. This year we won’t see automakers register many electric cars between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. Each BEV registered before the end of the year can reduce fines by around 18,000 euros in case of non-compliance.
When Tony Spa gave a talk about the market turmoil nearly a decade ago, this was the invention of the elegant invisible hand. Such as replacing the horse-drawn cart with the car, the landline phone with the mobile phone, the mobile phone with the smartphone, the Kodak retreat, etc.
Now we have stimulus and taxes on new and old technologies, supply disruptions due to the Covid-19 shutdown, chip shortages due to stupid OEM cancellation orders, factories closed due to war and sanctions, and forced sales due to CAFE regulations.
The “normal” delivery time for a new car in Europe is now between 6 and 18 months. How OEMs distribute the rare parts they get is a mystery, probably to them as well. External impressions are the focus on BEVs, but at the same time BEVs are said to have the longest waiting times. Nations… Neither of them can be true. It’s also possible that vehicles with higher margins will be manufactured first, and some are entirely electric.
Covering all of these extraordinary events, we still have the invisible hand doing its thing. We believe we are seeing a growth in sales of light electric vehicles that cannot be explained solely by all the market interventions and disruptions. The decline in FFVs over the past half-decade is more constant and greater than simply the influence of external forces that can be explained.
We are now more than two-thirds past the month of May. We see the same pattern. More BEV sales (+30%) and less FFV sales (-30%) compared to last year. Dutch car associations representing wholesale, retail and service companies are waiting for the Dutch car market to recover. This means from their point of viewreal car market– Vehicles with exhaust. It is time to wake up and start reporting on the deteriorating old market and the growing new market. Instead, they are trying to cover up what is happening by not releasing details about the various types of engines used in the market. Fortunately, they are not the only source For this detailed data.(Special thanks to EU-EVS and iserv.nl.)
The market share for BEVs could be increased to around 30% by the end of the year. We can enter the semi-vertical portion of the S curve for the transition in 2023 and 2024, and then flatten towards its peak in 2025 or 2026.
Looking at the rest of Europe, we see that Scandinavia is following Norway’s lead. It will reach its peak even earlier than the Netherlands.
The large Western European markets (Germany, France and Great Britain) follow at a small distance. Southern Europe and Italy are starting to rise, but the more mature electric car market in general is now offering the types of vehicles they need. Infrastructure is an obstacle, especially in geographically large and sparsely populated Spain.
With the collapse of the internal combustion engine market in Scandinavia, followed by the Dutch and German markets a year or two later, we enter terra incognita. We see a domino effect in other markets or older OEMs steadily defending their markets in a losing battle. In Europe, the transition will be completed before the end of the decade.
Whatever the automaker’s regulations, directives or transition plans, word of mouth about the benefits of electric driving along with the local driving restrictions of any exhaust vehicle will prevail.
We routinely provide stats on model sales and the like – José Pontes’ numbers should tell you all the details.
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